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Our annual rebate analysis remains one of our most popular reports. In the past, we have reviewed rebate changes across multiple technology types like LED, Controls, and HVAC in a single study, with the most emphasis on LEDs. For 2026, we are trying something new, focusing on a single technology at a time to deliver deeper insights that are the most impactful for you.
Below you will find our LED and HVAC Utility Trend analyses, reviewing rebate changes by state, program, and product category for each technology, along with trends for Lighting Controls.
View the videos below and keep reading for a summary of this year’s analysis. Once you've had time to digest the information, join us on April 15th for a live Q&A session. Sign up now!
If videos aren’t your thing, you can download a slide deck: download LED slides and download HVAC slides.
LED Program Changes
Analyzing programs between March 2025 and March 2026, we are seeing positive increases across states for both prescriptive (downstream) and instant (midstream) programs, with a 5.7% average change across states for prescriptive and 3.0% across states for instant.
Looking at product categories, incentive increases were seen in almost all categories for both program types. The only decrease seen was Parking Garage Luminaires in instant programs, likely due to a large increase last year. Downlight recessed also saw the largest increase in instant programs, up 17%.
Several programs stand out this year. These include Focus on Energy Wisconsin, which had double-digit increases for tubes and downlights, horticulture, and high bays in their prescriptive program; Duke Energy Kentucky, which saw an almost 100% increase for High Bays, and 2x4 troffers and retrofit kits in their instant program; and Rocky Mountain Power - Wyoming for their instant program increases for High Bay Replacement Lamps and Outdoor Lighting categories.
If videos aren't your thing, you can download LED slides here.
Key Takeaways
There’s a lot of rebate information to sort through at the beginning of every year; we’re here to help. Below is a summary of our key takeaways to keep in mind in 2026:
- Downstream (prescriptive) and midstream (instant) incentive programs have seen increases in all lighting categories, with the exception of midstream Parking Garage Luminaires.
- Some programs that cover multiple utilities are increasing incentives for certain regions, while decreasing incentives in other regions to encourage more program participation.
- As LED technology continues to improve, higher rebates help push business customers toward the latest, most efficient lighting and controls, helping utilities maintain kWh savings.
If you have any questions about this information, be sure to sign up for our Live Q+A Session on April 15th. You will be able to submit your questions at registration.
HVAC Program Changes
Analyzing programs between March 2025 and March 2026, we are seeing positive increases across states for both prescriptive (downstream) and instant (midstream) programs, with a 11.5% average change across states for prescriptive and 9.5% across states for instant.
Looking at product categories, incentive increases were seen in almost all categories for both program types. The only decreases seen were Ducted Mini-Split Heat Pumps and PTACs saw some decrease in a handful of small utilities.
Several programs stand out this year, including Energy Trust of Oregon and Energize CT, both of which saw large increases, with some incentives over $1,000/ton. ConEd is also noteworthy, focusing on
electrification measures for incentives, offering $120 per MMBtu for full electrification and
$70/MMBtu for partial electrification.
If videos aren't your thing, you can download HVAC slides here.
Key Takeaways
There’s a lot of rebate information to sort through at the beginning of every year; we’re here to help. Below is a summary of our key takeaways to keep in mind in 2026:
- Many programs and product categories saw increases, with Oregon & Connecticut seeing huge HVAC program increases. While ConEd is shifting completely to electrification incentives.
- Utilities have not made many midstream rates publicly available until recently, so that has limited the number of programs for which we can calculate annual changes.
- Downstream increases were higher for Heat Pump technology versus Traditional Air Conditioning.
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Whether you’re a distributor, a manufacturer, or a contractor, we have solutions to help you use rebates in 2026. Reach out to us at hello@encentivenergy.com with questions, and see you on April 15th!
Special thanks to Steve Bolibruck and Mike Cham for their analysis contribution.
